When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 872 | 4% | 0% | 4.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 20 | 14% | 0% | 14.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 10 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 8 | 38% | 0% | 38.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 6 | 48% | 0% | 47.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 66 | 50% | 0% | 50.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $2,681 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-04.
3100 total trades across 654 markets.
982 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 8.3% — excellent.
Skill: 50/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 71/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 91.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0221 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.1001 (skill: -1165.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.
Confidence: B/74 [CI95: B→B, 74-74] (982 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.