When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 98 | 4% | 31% | 26.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 56 | 14% | 39% | 25.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 68 | 25% | 38% | 13.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 72 | 36% | 36% | 0.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 72 | 45% | 56% | 11.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 74 | 55% | 70% | 15.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 38 | 65% | 47% | 17.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 64 | 74% | 69% | 5.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 28 | 86% | 50% | 36.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 26 | 95% | 15% | 79.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 2012 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
2109 total trades across 343 markets.
596 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 18.4% — good.
Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -14.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0597 RES=0.0243 UNC=0.2486.
Log loss: 0.8798 (skill: -27.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/59 ± 3 (high confidence, 596 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.