When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10-0.20 | 8 | 15% | 0% | 15.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 6 | 25% | 17% | 8.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 34% | 50% | 15.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 7 | 45% | 29% | 16.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 7 | 55% | 43% | 11.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 6 | 63% | 0% | 63.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 8 | 73% | 13% | 60.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 5 | 82% | 20% | 61.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 12 days, 1246 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
550 total trades across 374 markets.
53 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 30.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 28/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 50/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -72.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1491 RES=0.0295 UNC=0.1645.
Log loss: 0.7663 (skill: -50.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 9.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/40 ± 8 (medium confidence, 53 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.