When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 6% | 0% | 6.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 32 | 16% | 0% | 15.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 34 | 24% | 0% | 23.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 28 | 33% | 0% | 33.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 26 | 45% | 0% | 45.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 22 | 55% | 0% | 55.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 32 | 65% | 0% | 64.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 50 | 76% | 0% | 76.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 40 | 83% | 0% | 82.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 96% | 0% | 96.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 262 markets.
270 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 52.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -35.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3381 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.9200 (skill: -11534.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/56 [CI95: C→C, 55-57] (270 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.