When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 6% | 0% | 6.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 15% | 0% | 15.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 25% | 0% | 25.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 33% | 0% | 33.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 44% | 0% | 44.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 56% | 0% | 55.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 3 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 75% | 0% | 75.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 7 | 85% | 0% | 84.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 5 | 96% | 0% | 95.8% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2293 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
2000 total trades across 577 markets.
29 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 66.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -101.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.5032 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.4960 (skill: -18819.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 3.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 ± 15 (low confidence, 29 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.