When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 898 | 6% | 0% | 5.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 14 | 15% | 0% | 15.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 26 | 25% | 0% | 24.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 36% | 0% | 35.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 6 | 44% | 0% | 44.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 53% | 0% | 53.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 63% | 0% | 63.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 6 | 75% | 0% | 75.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 82% | 0% | 81.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 12 | 96% | 0% | 95.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 255 markets.
984 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 9.2% — excellent.
Skill: 49/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 89.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0272 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.1336 (skill: -1589.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader demonstrates elite forecasting skill. Their predictions are well-calibrated and consistently beat naive baselines.
Confidence: A/103 [CI95: A→A, 103-100] (984 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.