When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0% | 2.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 17% | 0% | 16.9% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 7 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 17 | 37% | 0% | 36.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 62 | 45% | 0% | 45.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 45 | 54% | 0% | 54.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 24 | 64% | 0% | 63.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 6 | 76% | 0% | 75.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 87% | 0% | 87.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 99% | 0% | 99.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 113 days, 2271 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,638 in / $0 out across 115 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-27.
2020 total trades across 189 markets.
171 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.3% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 35/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -5.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2626 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7494 (skill: -9377.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 15.9 days before resolution, 40% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/42 ± 8 (medium confidence, 171 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.