VIGIL: JAR824 scored F/28

JAR824

0x36309c6e27fdce6f03ba86f514a6de4afe873f8f

Polymarket Trader

DANGER

High probability of further losses.

F

28 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

0

Profitability

0

Consistency

55

Discipline

44

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

50

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-937.65

Win Rate

1%

Resolved Bets

616

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$1596

Markets

7

Brier Score

0.4096

Open Positions

4

Brier Skill

-999.0%

Log Loss

1.402

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	122	4%	0%	3.9%
0.10-0.20	56	15%	0%	15.0%
0.20-0.30	24	26%	0%	25.6%
0.30-0.40	38	35%	5%	30.0%
0.40-0.50	32	44%	0%	44.0%
0.50-0.60	44	55%	0%	55.2%
0.60-0.70	52	65%	0%	64.8%
0.70-0.80	48	75%	4%	70.7%
0.80-0.90	42	85%	0%	84.6%
0.90-1.00	158	96%	0%	96.2%

Calibration Error: 52.6%

Reliability (CAL)

0.4029

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0003

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-999.0%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

1.4019

Skill: -3478.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Signals

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.4096

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.526

⚠ High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -6249.0% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$938 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 1%

⚠ PnL divergence: $1646 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

53d

Txns on Base

2973

Counterparties

101

USDC In

$10547

USDC Out

$9839

Provenance

B (73)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $1645.94 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2973 txs

✓ Diverse counterparties: 101 unique addresses

✓ Significant USDC flow: $20,386

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

✓ Diverse trading network: 101 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 53 days, 2973 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $7,726 in / $0 out across 236 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-08.

3100 total trades across 7 markets.

616 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 52.6% — needs improvement.

Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -6249.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.4029 RES=0.0003 UNC=0.0065.

Log loss: 1.4019 (skill: -3478.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does F/28 Mean?

No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.

Confidence: F/28 [CI95: F→F, 26-29] (616 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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