VIGIL: melchior1248 scored C/58

melchior1248

0x36901eb0f21519cc9055662a6d2483e96da1e16f

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

58 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

67

Profitability

100

Consistency

100

Discipline

97

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

84

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$631392.61

Win Rate

1%

Resolved Bets

902

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$26331

Markets

224

Brier Score

0.0067

Open Positions

98

Brier Skill

-0.7%

Log Loss

0.044

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	842	2%	0%	2.4%
0.10-0.20	40	10%	5%	5.4%
0.20-0.30	2	24%	0%	23.8%
0.30-0.40	2	37%	0%	36.9%
0.40-0.50	2	46%	0%	45.7%
0.50-0.60	10	50%	0%	50.0%
0.90-1.00	4	92%	100%	7.9%

Calibration Error: 3.3%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0044

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0045

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-0.7%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.0437

Skill: -9.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

57

Skill Score

64

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0067

✓ Strong live edge: 98 open positions trending profitable

✓ Net profitable: +$631393 total PnL

✓ Well-diversified: 224 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

✓ On-chain: $11,871 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 78 tx (Polygon)

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Penny-lottery strategy: 93% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts

⚠ Low win rate: 1%

⚠ PnL divergence: $622146 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

127d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$53850

USDC Out

$44604

Provenance

C (58)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $622146.2 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $98,454

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 127 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $11,871 in / $35,610 out across 78 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-10.

3100 total trades across 224 markets.

902 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 3.3% — excellent.

Skill: 57/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 64/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -0.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0044 RES=0.0045 UNC=0.0066.

Log loss: 0.0437 (skill: -9.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/58 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/58 [CI95: C→C, 58-58] (902 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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