When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 4 | 5% | 0% | 4.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 12 | 16% | 0% | 16.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 28 | 26% | 14% | 11.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 116 | 36% | 2% | 33.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 360 | 46% | 4% | 42.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 398 | 53% | 4% | 49.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 46 | 64% | 13% | 50.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 8 | 76% | 0% | 75.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 85% | 0% | 85.3% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 95% | 0% | 95.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 50 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
2000 total trades across 307 markets.
978 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 43.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 8/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 46/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -513.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2018 RES=0.0008 UNC=0.0392.
Log loss: 0.6758 (skill: -295.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 978 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.