When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 42 | 6% | 0% | 6.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 94 | 16% | 0% | 15.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 70 | 25% | 0% | 25.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 106 | 35% | 2% | 33.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 156 | 45% | 0% | 45.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 144 | 55% | 1% | 53.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 140 | 65% | 1% | 63.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 96 | 75% | 0% | 74.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 94 | 84% | 0% | 83.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 58 | 94% | 0% | 94.3% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 54 days, 2075 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 581 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 51.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -5357.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3189 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0060.
Log loss: 0.9172 (skill: -2400.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/29 [CI95: F→F, 28-30] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.