When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10-0.20 | 5 | 17% | 0% | 17.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 31 | 27% | 0% | 26.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 52 | 36% | 0% | 36.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 60 | 44% | 0% | 44.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 15 | 53% | 0% | 53.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 1 | 65% | 0% | 64.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 1 | 94% | 0% | 94.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 45 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,891 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.
3100 total trades across 166 markets.
165 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 13/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 35.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1608 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5123 (skill: -6378.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/53 [CI95: C→C, 52-54] (165 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.