When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 6 | 6% | 0% | 6.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 15% | 0% | 15.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 15 | 27% | 0% | 27.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 36 | 35% | 0% | 35.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 64 | 46% | 0% | 46.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 74 | 55% | 0% | 55.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 80 | 65% | 0% | 65.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 87 | 75% | 0% | 74.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 67 | 85% | 0% | 84.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 57 | 95% | 0% | 95.4% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2288 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
2695 total trades across 933 markets.
492 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 64.3% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -82.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4553 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.3095 (skill: -16460.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 492 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.