VIGIL: fj3fwasjnk3t4 scored D/35

fj3fwasjnk3t4

0x4d40c3f3627f64591eac428cd4248c651a9c398d

Polymarket Trader

RISKY

Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.

D

35 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

0

Profitability

0

Consistency

82

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-5090.46

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

1000

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$3832

Markets

176

Brier Score

0.2686

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

-999.0%

Log Loss

0.735

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.10-0.20	6	19%	0%	18.7%
0.20-0.30	86	26%	0%	26.4%
0.30-0.40	168	35%	0%	34.8%
0.40-0.50	232	45%	0%	45.0%
0.50-0.60	246	54%	2%	52.4%
0.60-0.70	168	65%	0%	64.9%
0.70-0.80	92	74%	0%	74.2%
0.80-0.90	2	81%	0%	81.0%

Calibration Error: 49.4%

Reliability (CAL)

0.2636

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-999.0%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.7346

Skill: -2717.0% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

1

Skill Score

100

Variance

Signals

✓ Well-diversified: 176 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.494

⚠ High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -6642.1% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Net loss: -$5090 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $6614 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

81d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$7488

USDC Out

$5964

Provenance

C (53)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $6614.29 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $13,452

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 81 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,670 in / $4,800 out across 15 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-27.

3100 total trades across 176 markets.

1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 49.4% — needs improvement.

Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -6642.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.2636 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0040.

Log loss: 0.7346 (skill: -2717.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does D/35 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/35 [CI95: F→D, 34-35] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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