When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 36 | 7% | 17% | 9.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 42 | 16% | 14% | 2.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 22 | 25% | 18% | 6.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 32 | 34% | 6% | 28.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 36 | 45% | 6% | 39.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 28 | 53% | 29% | 24.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 34 | 64% | 18% | 46.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 34 | 75% | 0% | 75.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 26 | 86% | 8% | 78.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 8 | 92% | 0% | 91.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 12 days, 2925 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,680 in / $0 out across 26 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.
3100 total trades across 74 markets.
298 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 35.3% — needs improvement.
Skill: 19/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -183.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1996 RES=0.0066 UNC=0.1062.
Log loss: 0.8499 (skill: -130.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 ± 3 (high confidence, 298 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.