When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 5% | 100% | 94.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 4 | 37% | 100% | 63.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 45% | 75% | 30.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 56% | 100% | 43.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 61% | 100% | 39.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 553 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
803 total trades across 14 markets.
14 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 52.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -460.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3185 RES=0.0128 UNC=0.0663.
Log loss: 1.0825 (skill: -320.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 547.6 days before resolution, 100% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/37 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 14 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.