When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 732 | 3% | 1% | 2.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 46 | 12% | 13% | 1.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 10 | 24% | 20% | 3.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 8 | 32% | 0% | 32.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 20 | 47% | 10% | 36.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 52% | 17% | 35.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 70% | 0% | 69.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 75% | 100% | 25.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 82% | 100% | 18.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 95% | 50% | 44.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 497 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $756 in / $8,301 out across 10 withdrawal tx since 2025-04-10.
3100 total trades across 835 markets.
840 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 4.5% — excellent.
Skill: 56/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 75/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -0.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0091 RES=0.0095 UNC=0.0300.
Log loss: 0.1280 (skill: 7.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 [CI95: C→C, 51-51] (840 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.