VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Cercaphus
0x5cddbac7f3d37c0bb9d33bae7cb6f3f6d254d068
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 8 | 1% | 100% | 99.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 99% | 100% | 1.0% |
Calibration Error: 79.4%
Reliability (CAL)
0.7841
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-213.6%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
3.6861
Skill: -46517.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Signals
✓ Conservative (underconfident) bias
✓ Net profitable: +$0 total PnL
✓ Strong win rate: 100%
✓ Well-diversified: 34 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.7841
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -213.6% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Penny-lottery strategy: 80% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $31.09 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2495 txs
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
✓ Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 45 days, 2495 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
34 total trades across 34 markets.
10 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 79.4% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 0/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -213.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.7841 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 3.6861 (skill: -46517.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does F/5 Mean?
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/5 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 10 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.