When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 6 | 8% | 0% | 8.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 34 | 16% | 0% | 15.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 82 | 26% | 0% | 26.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 184 | 35% | 1% | 34.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 174 | 44% | 0% | 43.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 182 | 56% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 182 | 65% | 0% | 65.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 124 | 74% | 0% | 73.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 28 | 85% | 0% | 85.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 90% | 0% | 90.5% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,474 in / $0 out across 114 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.
3100 total trades across 159 markets.
998 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.3% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 23/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -14222.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2839 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0020.
Log loss: 0.7783 (skill: -5285.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/26 [CI95: F→F, 25-27] (998 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.