When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 40 | 4% | 15% | 11.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 12 | 14% | 17% | 2.6% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 20 | 25% | 10% | 15.2% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 35 | 36% | 9% | 27.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 63 | 46% | 5% | 40.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 55 | 54% | 2% | 52.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 34 | 64% | 9% | 55.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 20 | 75% | 5% | 69.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 17 | 85% | 12% | 73.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 54 | 96% | 19% | 77.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 89 days, 2228 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
3100 total trades across 529 markets.
350 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 45.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -303.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2609 RES=0.0033 UNC=0.0854.
Log loss: 1.1026 (skill: -253.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/32 ± 3 (high confidence, 350 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.