When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 32 | 6% | 3% | 2.6% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 47 | 16% | 4% | 11.9% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 70 | 25% | 3% | 22.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 101 | 35% | 0% | 34.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 129 | 46% | 0% | 46.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 108 | 54% | 0% | 53.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 22 | 65% | 0% | 64.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 7 | 73% | 29% | 44.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 83% | 0% | 82.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 362 days, 2897 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $773,804 in / $0 out across 65 withdrawal tx since 2025-06-26.
3100 total trades across 536 markets.
520 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 37.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 46/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -1282.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1704 RES=0.0013 UNC=0.0133.
Log loss: 0.5467 (skill: -666.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 80.3 days before resolution, 98% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/24 [CI95: F→F, 23-25] (520 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.