When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 31 | 6% | 0% | 6.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 40 | 14% | 0% | 14.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 40 | 25% | 0% | 24.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 9 | 34% | 0% | 33.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 47% | 0% | 47.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 5 | 54% | 0% | 53.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 66% | 0% | 66.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 73% | 0% | 73.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 6 days, 2989 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,597 in / $0 out across 84 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-27.
3100 total trades across 212 markets.
135 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 21.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 34/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 57/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 70.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0722 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.2749 (skill: -3376.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 3.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (135 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.