When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 8% | 0% | 7.6% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 18% | 0% | 18.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 3 | 25% | 0% | 24.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 36% | 0% | 36.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 5 | 45% | 0% | 45.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 3 | 53% | 0% | 52.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 1 | 64% | 0% | 63.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 5 | 75% | 0% | 74.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 7 | 85% | 0% | 84.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 97% | 0% | 97.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2285 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
2000 total trades across 630 markets.
32 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 59.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -67.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4190 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.2264 (skill: -15410.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 3.4 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/45 ± 15 (low confidence, 32 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.