When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0% | 2.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 15% | 0% | 15.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 7 | 27% | 0% | 26.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 21 | 36% | 0% | 36.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 78 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 63 | 54% | 0% | 54.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 32 | 64% | 0% | 63.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 16 | 75% | 0% | 74.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 13 | 85% | 0% | 85.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 6 | 91% | 0% | 91.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 65 days, 2137 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,644 in / $0 out across 56 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.
3100 total trades across 221 markets.
241 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 53.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 35/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -24.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3097 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.8463 (skill: -10602.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 2.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/40 [CI95: D→D, 39-41] (241 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.