When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 26 | 8% | 62% | 54.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 118 | 16% | 12% | 3.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 224 | 25% | 10% | 14.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 22 | 33% | 0% | 32.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 4 | 43% | 0% | 42.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 60% | 0% | 59.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 44 | 67% | 0% | 66.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 198 | 75% | 8% | 67.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 112 | 84% | 21% | 62.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 28 | 92% | 64% | 27.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 128 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $7,293 in / $1 out across 229 withdrawal tx since 2025-12-24.
3100 total trades across 232 markets.
778 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -164.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2205 RES=0.0207 UNC=0.1214.
Log loss: 0.8834 (skill: -116.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/24 ± 3 (high confidence, 778 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.