VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Len9311238
0x78b9ac44a6d7d7a076c14e0ad518b301b63c6b76
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
D
38 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
27
Profitability
40
Consistency
80
Discipline
11
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
40
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$0
Win Rate
100%
Resolved Bets
7
Total Trades
194
Volume
$4641881
Markets
7
Brier Score
0.2738
Open Positions
0
Brier Skill
-9.5%
Log Loss
0.742
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.30-0.40135%100%65.1%
0.40-0.50342%100%58.5%
0.50-0.60158%100%42.3%
0.60-0.70262%100%37.9%
Calibration Error: 51.2%
Reliability (CAL)
0.2738
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-9.5%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.7420
Skill: -9283.5% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
100/100
Avg 545d before resolution, 100% early mover
Signals
✓ On-chain: 545-day wallet history on Polygon
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ Thin resolved data: only 7 resolved bets
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
545d
Txns on Base
2000
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$3491478
USDC Out
$3409917
Provenance
B (71)
Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)
✓ Wallet age: 545 days (mature)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $6,901,395
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 545 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

194 total trades across 7 markets.

7 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 27/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does D/38 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/38 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 7 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-21T05:28:19.284Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket