When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 9 | 4% | 0% | 3.6% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 18% | 0% | 17.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 9 | 26% | 0% | 26.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 35 | 35% | 0% | 35.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 41 | 45% | 0% | 45.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 62 | 55% | 0% | 54.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 23 | 65% | 0% | 64.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 11 | 74% | 0% | 74.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 8 | 83% | 0% | 83.2% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 92% | 0% | 91.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 10 days, 2370 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
3100 total trades across 208 markets.
206 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 48.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 46/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -7.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2672 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7370 (skill: -9220.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/49 ± 3 (high confidence, 206 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.