When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 27 | 2% | 96% | 94.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 10 | 15% | 20% | 5.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 17 | 23% | 6% | 17.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 25 | 35% | 12% | 23.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 32 | 45% | 3% | 42.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 23 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 18 | 66% | 0% | 65.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 16 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 16 | 84% | 0% | 84.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 7 | 94% | 0% | 93.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 213 markets.
191 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 54.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 30/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -192.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3805 RES=0.1057 UNC=0.1429.
Log loss: 1.3775 (skill: -199.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/37 [CI95: D→D, 35-39] (191 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.