When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 14 | 1% | 0% | 1.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 16% | 0% | 16.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 20 | 27% | 0% | 27.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 14 | 34% | 0% | 34.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 12 | 46% | 0% | 46.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 32 | 55% | 0% | 55.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 28 | 64% | 0% | 64.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 24 | 75% | 0% | 74.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 89% | 0% | 88.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 6 | 99% | 0% | 99.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 2193 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $205,465 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.
3100 total trades across 86 markets.
156 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 31/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -26.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3167 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.9240 (skill: -11585.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→D, 31-35] (156 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.