When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 4% | 0% | 3.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 14% | 0% | 14.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 24% | 50% | 25.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 46% | 0% | 45.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 4 | 55% | 0% | 54.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 64% | 50% | 13.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 2 | 72% | 0% | 72.3% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 63 days, 545 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
449 total trades across 182 markets.
17 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 36.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 24/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 33/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -136.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1807 RES=0.0450 UNC=0.1038.
Log loss: 0.6672 (skill: -84.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 22.3 days before resolution, 60% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/56 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 17 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.