VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Keisor
0x7fa8406447d7d1317c022b64b8caa7b108c2fd4e
Polymarket Trader
SOLID
Process is working. Metrics hold up under scrutiny.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 64 | 9% | 0% | 8.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 2 | 43% | 0% | 43.0% |
Calibration Error: 10.0%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0133
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
94.7%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.1076
Skill: -1261.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0133
✓ Brier Skill Score: 94.7% better than naive baseline
✓ Strong live edge: 6 open positions trending profitable
✓ Well-diversified: 111 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Net loss: -$105 total PnL
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $105.1 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 571 txs
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
✓ Diverse trading network: 21 counterparties
⚠ Young wallet: only 20 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 571 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
282 total trades across 111 markets.
66 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 10.0% — excellent.
Skill: 48/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 94.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0133 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.1076 (skill: -1261.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does B/77 Mean?
This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.
Confidence: B/77 ± 8 (medium confidence, 66 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.