When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.20-0.30 | 2 | 28% | 50% | 22.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 34% | 100% | 65.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 5 | 46% | 60% | 14.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 5 | 54% | 80% | 25.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 1 | 67% | 100% | 33.1% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 565 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $27,906 in / $0 out across 5 withdrawal tx since 2024-10-04.
376 total trades across 14 markets.
14 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 24.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -26.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0765 RES=0.0255 UNC=0.2041.
Log loss: 0.7101 (skill: -18.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 564.2 days before resolution, 100% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/35 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 14 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.