VIGIL: devonpoll scored C/57

devonpoll

0x828b32d58d6624b0716f8f8661cbef5529cba12b

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

57 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

61

Profitability

0

Consistency

100

Discipline

89

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

62

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-44160.49

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

994

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$22901

Markets

458

Brier Score

0.1839

Open Positions

6

Brier Skill

26.4%

Log Loss

0.549

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	28	6%	0%	6.0%
0.10-0.20	56	16%	0%	15.6%
0.20-0.30	86	25%	0%	24.9%
0.30-0.40	198	36%	0%	35.7%
0.40-0.50	178	45%	0%	44.6%
0.50-0.60	440	50%	0%	50.3%
0.60-0.70	6	65%	0%	64.7%
0.70-0.80	2	75%	0%	75.0%

Calibration Error: 41.1%

Reliability (CAL)

0.1834

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

26.4%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.5488

Skill: -6840.7% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

11

Skill Score

15

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.1839

✓ Brier Skill Score: 26.4% better than naive baseline

✓ Well-diversified: 458 unique markets

✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network

⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.411

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Net loss: -$44160 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ PnL divergence: $44441 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

⚠ On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

158d

Txns on Base

2859

Counterparties

63

USDC In

$3801

USDC Out

$3520

Provenance

B (73)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $44441.17 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2859 txs

✓ Diverse counterparties: 63 unique addresses

✓ Diverse trading network: 63 counterparties

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Possible automated trading: 291 burst txs

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 158 days, 2859 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,259 in / $0 out across 33 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-18.

3100 total trades across 458 markets.

994 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 41.1% — needs improvement.

Skill: 11/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 26.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.1834 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.5488 (skill: -6840.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/57 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/57 [CI95: C→C, 57-57] (994 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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