When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10-0.20 | 9 | 18% | 0% | 18.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 62 | 26% | 0% | 25.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 72 | 35% | 0% | 34.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 74 | 44% | 0% | 43.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 25 | 55% | 0% | 54.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 14 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 6 | 74% | 0% | 74.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 11 | 85% | 0% | 84.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 94% | 0% | 93.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 76 days, 2635 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 283 markets.
275 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 41.2% — needs improvement.
Skill: 11/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 21.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1946 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5922 (skill: -7388.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (275 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.