When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 5 | 13% | 0% | 13.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 7 | 26% | 0% | 25.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 18 | 35% | 0% | 35.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 30 | 46% | 0% | 46.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 36 | 56% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 48 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 45 | 74% | 0% | 74.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 32 | 85% | 0% | 85.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 16 | 95% | 0% | 94.8% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2036 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1449 total trades across 264 markets.
238 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -73.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4317 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1777 (skill: -14794.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/47 ± 3 (high confidence, 238 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.