VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
RepTrump
0x863134d00841b2e200492805a01e1e2f5defaa53
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
F
31 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
7
Profitability
40
Consistency
64
Discipline
12
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
40
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$0
Win Rate
88%
Resolved Bets
8
Total Trades
160
Volume
$3226134
Markets
8
Brier Score
0.2651
Open Positions
0
Brier Skill
-142.4%
Log Loss
0.724
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.30-0.40538%80%42.1%
0.50-0.60160%100%40.1%
0.60-0.70262%100%38.0%
Calibration Error: 40.9%
Reliability (CAL)
0.1673
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0094
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-142.4%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.7243
Skill: -92.2% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
100/100
Avg 547d before resolution, 100% early mover
Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

13
Skill Score
32
Variance
Signals
✓ On-chain: 550-day wallet history on Polygon
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ Thin resolved data: only 8 resolved bets
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
550d
Txns on Base
2000
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$5216889
USDC Out
$3884202
Provenance
B (71)
Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)
✓ Wallet age: 550 days (mature)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $9,101,090
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 550 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

160 total trades across 8 markets.

8 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 13/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does F/31 Mean?

No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.

Confidence: F/31 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 8 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-21T05:22:38.390Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket