VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Unconscious-Mode
0x87945f607904fbc21d407f2e92640d5fcd29a22c
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
D
40 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
20
Profitability
40
Consistency
77
Discipline
50
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
40
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$0
Win Rate
0%
Resolved Bets
6
Total Trades
587
Volume
$9990
Markets
227
Brier Score
0.3302
Open Positions
0
Brier Skill
-32.1%
Log Loss
0.863
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.20-0.30128%0%27.8%
0.40-0.50148%0%48.0%
0.50-0.60154%0%54.3%
0.60-0.70264%0%64.5%
0.70-0.80174%0%74.0%
Calibration Error: 55.5%
Reliability (CAL)
0.3302
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-32.1%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.8632
Skill: -10816.7% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
45/100
Avg 18d before resolution, 67% early mover
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 227 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ Limited resolved data (6 resolved) despite 587 trades across 227 markets — older positions may have been purged from API
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
59d
Txns on Base
887
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$5198
USDC Out
$5198
Provenance
C (53)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 887 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $10,396
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 59 days, 887 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

587 total trades across 227 markets.

6 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does D/40 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/40 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 6 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-20T00:34:46.434Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket