When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 112 | 4% | 0% | 3.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 35 | 15% | 0% | 15.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 43 | 25% | 0% | 24.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 63 | 35% | 0% | 34.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 70 | 46% | 0% | 45.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 26 | 52% | 0% | 52.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 64% | 0% | 64.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 74% | 0% | 74.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 81% | 0% | 80.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 39 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
1749 total trades across 1260 markets.
361 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 26.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 28/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 39/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 56.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1088 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.3524 (skill: -4357.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.4 days before resolution, 1% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/50 ± 3 (high confidence, 361 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.