When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 3 | 5% | 0% | 5.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 15% | 0% | 14.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 25% | 0% | 24.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 16 | 35% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 31 | 47% | 0% | 47.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 19 | 54% | 0% | 53.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 7 | 63% | 0% | 63.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 77% | 0% | 77.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 84% | 0% | 84.3% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $393 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-06-12.
3100 total trades across 95 markets.
95 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 44.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 7/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 11.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2205 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6304 (skill: -7872.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 2.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/46 [CI95: D→D, 44-47] (95 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.