When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 2% | 0% | 2.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 7 | 16% | 0% | 15.9% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 11 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 23 | 37% | 0% | 37.1% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 60 | 45% | 0% | 45.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 52 | 54% | 0% | 53.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 13 | 63% | 0% | 63.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 6 | 74% | 0% | 73.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 80% | 0% | 80.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 95% | 0% | 94.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,380 in / $0 out across 217 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.
2538 total trades across 184 markets.
178 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 47.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 1.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2456 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7003 (skill: -8756.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/56 ± 8 (medium confidence, 178 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.