VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
Trader 0x920535...
0x92053541c72e5235590a7d4608a9f077cb4ba945
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 39% | 0% | 39.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 9 | 47% | 0% | 46.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 13 | 55% | 0% | 54.7% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 14 | 65% | 0% | 65.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 74% | 0% | 73.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 85% | 0% | 85.2% |
Calibration Error: 58.9%
Reliability (CAL)
0.3575
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-43.2%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.9309
Skill: -11672.4% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
6/100
Avg 6d before resolution, 0% early mover
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 42 unique markets
✓ On-chain: $13,101 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 127 tx (Polygon)
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.358
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.589
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -43.2% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)
⚠ On-chain coverage gap: 127 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 42 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history.
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2586 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $40,787
⚠ Young wallet: only 7 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Possible automated trading: 73 burst txs
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 7 days, 2586 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $13,101 in / $0 out across 127 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-22.
3100 total trades across 42 markets.
42 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 58.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -43.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3575 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.9309 (skill: -11672.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 6.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
What Does D/38 Mean?
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/38 [CI95: D→D, 36-40] (42 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.