When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 473 | 4% | 0% | 4.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 10 | 14% | 0% | 13.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 21% | 0% | 21.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 32% | 0% | 31.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 2927 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,436 in / $0 out across 45 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-03.
3100 total trades across 722 markets.
485 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 4.3% — excellent.
Skill: 55/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 98.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0023 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0445 (skill: -462.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/50 [CI95: C→C, 50-50] (485 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.