When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 3 | 5% | 0% | 5.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0% | 11.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 37% | 0% | 36.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 2 | 47% | 0% | 46.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 3 | 56% | 0% | 56.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 5 | 65% | 0% | 65.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 11 | 84% | 0% | 83.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 27 | 96% | 0% | 95.7% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 124 days, 675 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $220 in / $0 out across 32 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-21.
607 total trades across 65 markets.
57 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 77.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 64/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -166.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.6647 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 2.1876 (skill: -27565.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 7.0 days before resolution, 7% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/32 ± 8 (medium confidence, 57 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.