VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
kongkingg
0xa24d78c59bfe80531fb532a877e672c00e7a264a
Polymarket Trader
DEVELOPING
Mixed signals. More data needed.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 12% | 0% | 12.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 29% | 0% | 28.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 35% | 0% | 34.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 9 | 45% | 0% | 45.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 13 | 55% | 0% | 54.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 24 | 64% | 0% | 64.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 10 | 74% | 0% | 74.4% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 8 | 84% | 0% | 84.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 92% | 0% | 92.4% |
Calibration Error: 61.5%
Reliability (CAL)
0.4041
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-62.0%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
1.0711
Skill: -13446.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
2/100
Avg 2d before resolution, 0% early mover
Signals
✓ Well-diversified: 272 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Weak Brier score: 0.4049
⚠ Overconfidence bias: 0.615
⚠ Brier Skill Score: -62.0% — performing worse than naive baseline
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ On-chain: wallet only 3 days old on Polygon
⚠ On-chain: wash trading signal — 97% of txs with single counterparty
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $614.96 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2038 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $10,787
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Very new wallet: 3 days old — possible sybil
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Wash trading signal: 97% of txs with single counterparty
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2038 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1635 total trades across 272 markets.
75 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 61.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -62.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4041 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.0711 (skill: -13446.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
What Does C/52 Mean?
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/52 ± 8 (medium confidence, 75 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.