When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 40 | 6% | 0% | 6.2% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 86 | 15% | 0% | 15.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 118 | 24% | 0% | 24.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 98 | 35% | 0% | 34.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 102 | 45% | 0% | 44.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 120 | 55% | 0% | 55.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 140 | 66% | 0% | 65.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 146 | 75% | 0% | 75.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 108 | 85% | 0% | 84.7% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 42 | 94% | 0% | 94.4% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 2965 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 25/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $19,914 in / $0 out across 161 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.
3100 total trades across 194 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 52.4% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -34.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3361 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.9395 (skill: -11781.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 ± 3 (high confidence, 1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.