When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 4 | 4% | 0% | 4.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 4 | 16% | 0% | 16.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 13 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 54 | 35% | 0% | 35.4% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 55 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 95 | 56% | 0% | 55.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 76 | 65% | 0% | 64.7% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 70 | 75% | 0% | 74.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 53 | 85% | 0% | 84.9% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 44 | 95% | 0% | 95.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2410 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,590 in / $0 out across 194 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.
3100 total trades across 818 markets.
468 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 61.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -69.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4216 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1954 (skill: -15018.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→F, 32-34] (468 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.