When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 11 | 7% | 36% | 29.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 8 | 14% | 50% | 35.6% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 7 | 26% | 43% | 17.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 6 | 34% | 17% | 17.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 11 | 45% | 18% | 27.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 11 | 54% | 9% | 45.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 6 | 64% | 33% | 30.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 4 | 74% | 25% | 49.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 3 | 85% | 33% | 52.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 1 days, 344 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $142 in / $0 out across 31 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.
243 total trades across 94 markets.
67 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 32.3% — needs improvement.
Skill: 24/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 55/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -49.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1158 RES=0.0183 UNC=0.2032.
Log loss: 0.8664 (skill: -45.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/43 ± 8 (medium confidence, 67 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.