When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 6% | 0% | 6.4% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 7 | 18% | 0% | 17.6% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 13 | 26% | 0% | 26.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 5 | 34% | 0% | 33.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 27 | 47% | 0% | 46.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 69 | 55% | 0% | 55.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 66 | 65% | 0% | 65.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 52 | 74% | 0% | 74.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 31 | 84% | 0% | 83.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 91% | 0% | 90.9% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 35 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $32,362 in / $0 out across 351 withdrawal tx since 2026-06-10.
3100 total trades across 275 markets.
275 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 60.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -59.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3984 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.0353 (skill: -12993.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (275 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.