When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 2% | 0% | 1.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 2 | 13% | 0% | 12.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 25% | 0% | 25.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 15 | 36% | 0% | 35.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 19 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 34 | 55% | 0% | 55.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 27 | 63% | 0% | 63.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 19 | 78% | 0% | 77.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 17 | 87% | 0% | 86.8% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 46 | 96% | 0% | 95.5% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 49 days, 2286 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $660 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-13.
3100 total trades across 189 markets.
189 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 66.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -98.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4964 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.5327 (skill: -19283.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/33 [CI95: F→D, 31-35] (189 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.