When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 3% | 0% | 3.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 2 | 45% | 0% | 44.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 7 | 55% | 14% | 40.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 74% | 0% | 73.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 7 | 86% | 0% | 85.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 95% | 0% | 94.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 78 days, 357 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
222 total trades across 149 markets.
25 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 63.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -1239.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4756 RES=0.0041 UNC=0.0384.
Log loss: 1.4525 (skill: -764.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 41.6 days before resolution, 71% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/37 ± 15 (low confidence, 25 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.